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墨西哥's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador shakes hands with girlds while visiting towns in the southwestern state of Guerrero, as 墨西哥'卫生部敦促人们保持健康"healthy distance" to avoid infection 和 the spreading of coronavirus (COVID-19), in Ayutla de los LIbres, 墨西哥 March 15, 2020. 墨西哥'通过路透社注意编辑的主持人/讲义-该图像已由第三方提供。没有销售。没有档案
来自混沌的命令

安乐’s feeble response to COVID-19 in 墨西哥

像唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)等世界各地的许多民粹主义领导人一样, 巴西的Jair Bolsanaro,伊姆兰·汗(Imran 可汗)在巴基斯坦墨西哥总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔(AndrésManuelLópezObrador)(通常被称为AMLO)对冠状病毒采取了危险的,不屑一顾的,完全不负责任的态度。

3月下旬,他未能采取任何必要的措施应对COVID-19大流行。他没有鼓励社会疏远,而是 鼓励墨西哥人 要去 节日,在餐厅用餐和外出购物。他继续参加集会,亲吻人们。就像“博士前南非卫生部长甜菜根(Beetroot)冒犯了刑事疏忽大意的虚假说法,认为大蒜,柠檬和橄榄油可以治愈艾滋病。

缓慢的溅射开始

Some necessary response measures are finally under way in 墨西哥, but mostly not thanks to 安乐. Like in Brazil where some city- 和 state-level officials — including those who used to be Bolsanaro’s closest allies — have 开始脱离 that president’s blatantly wrong response to COVID-19, some mayors 和 governors in 墨西哥 are beginning to act on their own, including counter to 安乐. On March 22, the mayor of 墨西哥 City, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, cancelled large gatherings 和 shut down schools 和 businesses.

直到最近,当COVID-19进入该国的社区传播阶段时,AMLO才开始听起来有些谨慎。 3月24日至25日,卫生部最终禁止了大型活动,AMLO政府暂停了所有不必要的活动,尽管 一些细节 其实施和执行。墨西哥政府还创作了漫画超级英雄女主角, 苏珊娜·迪斯坦西亚(Susana Distancia),以激励墨西哥人保持六英尺的距离。

即使他竞选有罪不罚,反腐败的候选人,但AMLO自己仍然违反所有新规定。 3月29日,AMLO没有集中精力加强他微弱的COVID-19回应并遵循自己的旅行限制,而是花了3月29日前往锡那罗亚州,与臭名昭著的毒贩Joaquín“ El Chapo”Guzmán的母亲会面。他 大力握手 在电视摄像机前,他的官员和当地代表紧紧包围着他,他的背部被拍拍。也许Susana Distancia应该面对AMLO-当然是在六英尺外!

安乐和他的政府已经不顾一切地危及许多墨西哥人的生命。该国的感染人数仍然相对较低,但正在迅速上升。 475年3月26日 冠状病毒检测呈阳性; 3月30日,有993位测试者呈阳性,已经有20人死亡。而且,这些数字可能大大低估了实际感染水平,因为 测试很少 in 墨西哥 和 testing kits are critically lacking.

墨西哥’s poorest, whom 安乐 seeks to empower, are the most vulnerable. By wasting time 和 sending the wrong messages, 安乐 missed an opportunity to contain the spread of the pandemic in 墨西哥 when it was most containable.

经济下滑

His reluctance to acknowledge the seriousness of COVID-19 — while he clung to a false hope that the pandemic would somehow bypass 墨西哥, despite its interconnectedness with the COVID-ravaged United States — resemble the dithering we’ve seen from Trump, Bolsanaro, 和 可汗: It’s a misguided attempt to save the country’s faltering national economy. Like the other leaders, 安乐 has been trading people’s lives for the delusion that 墨西哥’s economy can be sheltered from the pandemic.

一年多来,墨西哥的经济一直徘徊在刚刚超过衰退的水平。这对任何政治领导人来说都是非常糟糕的。以AMLO为例,经济表现不佳也证明了他履行对选民所做的巨大再分配承诺的能力。墨西哥经济的2020年前景黯淡。许多经济预测和信贷机构刚刚提出了对墨西哥经济的毁灭性预测:最乐观的是高盛(Goldman Sachs),它预计收缩1.6%。最悲观的预测是收缩5.8%至7%。 没有 预测增长。

Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic 和 the needed response measures hit the poor particularly hard. Like others in 墨西哥’s informal sector (which constitutes some 60% of the work force), they are highly vulnerable to businesses being forced to shut down 和 to people avoiding the streets to buy their wares. Their capacity to withstand an economic contraction is limited.

卫生保健被毁

墨西哥’s medical sector, overall, is gutted after years of spending cuts — including a 44% cut to a public health 和 welfare agency by 安乐 himself. Budget cuts have 左医院和诊所短缺 床,医疗设备,测试套件和人员。约10,000名医疗专业人员 在2019年被解雇,导致许多医疗程序的取消或延迟,包括 儿童手术. 墨西哥 has only 2,000台呼吸机1.4医疗床 每千人,当然,富人比穷人有更多的机会。

最近之后 抗议 by medical personnel, the 安乐 government promised to spend $150 million on hiring 40,000 medical professionals 和 procuring additional supplies. But filling the vacancies 和 getting tests 和 other supplies in will take time. These measures are barely a drop in the bucket as 墨西哥 confronts COVID-19 with one of the 最薄的公共卫生预算 历史上为54亿美元,相当于GDP的2.5%。甚至在COVID-19之前,墨西哥医学专家就认为这是3.41亿美元 每月 需要保持医疗系统的运转。

安乐关闭了Seguro Popular,这是针对非正规部门人员的保险安排,覆盖了6000万人,加剧了他们的脆弱性。他抱怨说,塞古罗·普罗旺斯(Seguro Popular)对于其受益者而言实在是太昂贵了,他们有害地“新自由主义”以及充斥腐败。这一举动是他对以前的政府制定的政策和机构立即进行清算的一部分。他认为他的前任的计划是使“权力黑手党”永存的同谋,也是他第四次革命的障碍。 声称正在实施.

安乐代替Seguro Popular,于2020年1月宣布创建INSABI,这是一项免费医疗计划。但是,正如对政策细节不感兴趣并且不听从负面消息警告的领导人宣布的其他计划的命运一样,迄今为止,INSABI(Seguro Popular的高度集中化版本)主要存在于纸面上。此外,尽管AMLO做出相反的承诺,INSABI还是做出了 一些程序比较昂贵,同时消除了某些方面的覆盖范围。和药物费用 上升了, once again hitting the poorest the hardest. The poor in 墨西哥, who constitute close to half of the country’s population, have no safety net. It wasn’t until late March that 安乐’s government at least 加快资源转移 之前已分配给INSABI。

Learn from 墨西哥’s past

安乐’s dismissive attitude toward COVID-19 will not insulate him from the effects of the illness. If large segments of 墨西哥’s population become ill, the country’s economy will remain suppressed for far longer than necessary. If the outbreak drags on, manufacturing centers 和 other key businesses may lose far more business 和 lay off many more workers. And tourists won’t want to visit an infected country.

安乐政府对COVID-19的反应与2009年FelipeCalderón政府对H1N1猪流感的反应形成鲜明对比。 最近的专栏 in 墨西哥 Today, the Calderón administration responded with swift, resolute, 和 effective measures, even if economically costly ones. Rapidly, the Calderón administration banned all public gatherings, shut down schools, 和 in 墨西哥 City, also all non-essential services. It maintained transparency about the spreading epidemic 和 closely cooperated with the United States 和 Canada.

不幸的是,AMLO在应对H1N1方面未能向墨西哥的全球公认领导者学习。 COVID-19和AMLO的错误政策回应都会给穷人带来同样的伤害。许多老年贫困者仍然是非正式部门的家庭经济支柱。在墨西哥,一个贫穷的家庭失去祖父母会带来其他社会经济后果:由于低下阶层的父母经常上下班上下班两到三个小时,祖父母往往会带孩子去上学或事后看望他们。没有爷爷奶奶的陪伴,可能会增加帮派招募独自留在街头的孩子。

And how will social distancing be maintained when COVID-19 arrives in 墨西哥 City’s vast crowded slums, or the poor rural communities in Guerrero or Chiapas, with very weak policing 和 health care systems? Perhaps some of 墨西哥’s criminal groups may act as enforcers of social distancing 和 care providers there, as 已经发生了 在里约热内卢的贫民窟。他们的力量将因此增加。

墨西哥 must 和 still can act better. 安乐 must wake up from his delusions 和 begin adopting 和 enforcing serious measures to stop COVID-19’s spread, leading by example. But if 安乐 persists with spending his political capital 和 time on visiting the mothers of imprisoned 纳尔科斯 和 violating the government’s own regulations, 墨西哥’s governors 和 mayors must start acting on their own. They must impose restrictions on gatherings 和 work with their medical professionals to prepare for isolating those who contract the virus. And they must not ignore the poor, helping with the provision of food 和 water so that people can minimize leaving their homes while avoiding starvation.

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