Back in August, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.3%—as the model predicted last month—pushed down by the 稳态收敛动态s. The decline in unemployment will continue, with a 7.2% jobless rate expected for September, but at a slow pace, being mainly driven by a 稳态收敛动态s, not by large improvements on the hiring front. The steady-state unemployment rate currently stands at 6.9% and is expected to remain flat over the next couple months. Towards the end of the year however, the model anticipates some improvement driven by an acceleration in the pace of hiring and in workers’ job finding rate (UE in figure 3). The steady-state unemployment rate is expected to resume its decline around November and reach 6.5% by March 2014, which will translate into a 6.8% unemployment rate in March 2014.
通过查看“稳态”滚球的预期行为可以轻松理解该预测。稳态滚球，即潜在劳动力流动所隐含的滚球（图2中的蓝线）目前为6.9％。我们的研究表明，实际滚球趋于稳定。如果稳态滚球水平低于实际水平（6.9比7.3，相差0.4个百分点），“稳态收敛动态” is pushing the unemployment rate down, implying a decline in unemployment going forward. However, going forward, the model anticipates the steady-state unemployment rate (SSUR) to remain roughly constant at 6.9 % over the next couple months (figure 2). The 稳态收敛动态 will thus become weaker as the unemployment rate converges to 7 percent, implying a decelerating rate of decline until the end of the year. Towards the end of the year, the situation will improve again, and SSUR is expected to resume its decline to reach 6.5% by March 2014.