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布鲁金斯on Job Numbers

滚球可能继续下降,9月滚球可能降至7.2%

这篇文章讨论了我对Barnichon-Nekarda模型的每月更新。有关本文中使用的基本概念的简介,请阅读我的介绍性文章(详细信息可用) 这里

由于政府关闭,9月的滚球可能不会在周五公布。这是最接近的替代品:最准确的预测模型预测9月份为7.2%。

Back in August, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.3%—as the model predicted last month—pushed down by the 稳态收敛动态s. The decline in unemployment will continue, with a 7.2% jobless rate expected for September, but at a slow pace, being mainly driven by a 稳态收敛动态s, not by large improvements on the hiring front. The steady-state unemployment rate currently stands at 6.9% and is expected to remain flat over the next couple months. Towards the end of the year however, the model anticipates some improvement driven by an acceleration in the pace of hiring and in workers’ job finding rate (UE in figure 3). The steady-state unemployment rate is expected to resume its decline around November and reach 6.5% by March 2014, which will translate into a 6.8% unemployment rate in March 2014.

03职位预测barnichon图1

通过查看“稳态”滚球的预期行为可以轻松理解该预测。稳态滚球,即潜在劳动力流动所隐含的滚球(图2中的蓝线)目前为6.9%。我们的研究表明,实际滚球趋于稳定。如果稳态滚球水平低于实际水平(6.9比7.3,相差0.4个百分点),“稳态收敛动态” is pushing the unemployment rate down, implying a decline in unemployment going forward. However, going forward, the model anticipates the steady-state unemployment rate (SSUR) to remain roughly constant at 6.9 % over the next couple months (figure 2). The 稳态收敛动态 will thus become weaker as the unemployment rate converges to 7 percent, implying a decelerating rate of decline until the end of the year. Towards the end of the year, the situation will improve again, and SSUR is expected to resume its decline to reach 6.5% by March 2014.

03职位预测barnichon图2

为了预测稳态失业(进而是实际滚球)的行为,该模型传播了关于就业,失业和劳动力外流如何随着时间演变的最佳估计。尽管9月初新申请失业保险人数大幅下降,但自3月份以来,职位空缺的数量一直与往年持平。因此,令人惊讶的是,该模型预计到年底时招聘人数将反弹(图3)。由于该模型的最大优势在于近期的预测(接下来的3个月),因此我倾向于将2014年的预测作为未来滚球的下限。

03职位预测barnichon图3

03职位预测barnichon图4

03职位预测Barnichon表

要详细了解基本模型及其优于其他滚球预测的证据,请参见Barnichon和Nekarda(2012)。

布鲁金斯专家从2014年3月到2019年4月每个月分析天气和季节性如何影响工作人数。要了解有关该系列的更多信息,请访问 我们的页面上的每月调整就业人数。

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